Oil & Gas Forums - Worldoils

The supply and demand fundamentals do not support current crude prices. Then how is it that the oil prices are still high and still about twice that of the beginning of the year.

It is probably the optimism that the global economy will soon recover and demand will improve is propping up crude prices. Good for now. But will we see a fast downtrend soon if the reality emerges?

Yes, in my opinion, a fast drop is possible. The consumption is predicted to still fall this year. So, in reality, the prices should drop.

I agree that the crude prices will rise, but definitely slowly.

Seems that the worst is over. Demand for products will increase, the manufacturing industry will pick up and so, consequently the oil demand will rise.

We should, I feel, see $80 by mid-September. Anybody out there agrees with me?

The investors are back in the stock market and the stock market is rising. The US unemployment figures are healthy.
But almost all investors are probably still worried about the fundamentals. Will the world's spending on energy return to earlier figures?

Judging from the climate, there is a likely chance that the speculators will return. But the trend will, in my opinion never be like last year as quite a few of these speculators have lost huge amounts of money.

Last year's spike will not return guys, not in the near future.

Let me say it too. It is probably (almost surely) that the oil price spike of 2008 was due to speculation.



Let me think as a different individual who thrives on speculation. I am good at playing the money game by using speculation and I have succeeded in making money. I bought oil at $85 and sold at $143. Speculators are good. They helped me make money.



True, but not the same with the others. Some bought at $146 and lost badly. Some investors who saw the housing collapse decided to jump in the fast growing and mouth watering oil price upward movement. It is said "Never buy a falling stock" which probably translates indirectly to "Buy oil when the prices are rising (especially at this momentum)".



Since I made money on speculation of the oil prices, I should say - Keep the speculators in. They help me. But for the sake of the general public and a bit of well needed economic balance, keep speculators out. But how??

Interesting article :

ALGIERS (AFP) — Crude oil wil remain priced at around 65 to 70 dollars a barrel until the end of 2009 before rising, Algeria's Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said Saturday, the APS agency reported.

"The market will stay within a band of 65 to 70 dollars until the end of 2009, because (US) fuel consumption will rise in summer, but it is difficult to predict the market," Khelil said in Algiers.


Read more here : <link removed>

Worldoils Notes : Oil Prices

The investor confidence seems to be rising. So are the oil prices.

Last week oil futures touched a high of $70 a barrel on the Nymex. The oil prices are also close double than that of the beginning of the year.
Is this a trend that will repeat the 2008 trend?

Some energy experts see similarities between the two run-ups. In both cases, the rise came despite warnings that supply-demand fundamentals didn't support big price increases, and in both cases, energy analysts appeared to drive the market upward. On Thursday, Goldman Sachs analysts predicted that oil prices will hit $95 a barrel by the end of next year, echoing the bank's prediction of $200 oil in May 2008.

The rise in the stock market and a hope that chinese oil demand will increase, seems to be fuelling the oil price rise.