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1

Saturday, December 13th 2008, 3:32am

2009 oil price forecast

First, let me give a collection of the available news from various sources reproduced below :

1. News : " Oman has reduced its assumed oil price for the 2009 budget by $10 to $45 a barrel following a plunge of around $100 in international crude prices since July."
Please read : http://www.arabianbusiness.com/540236-om…-price-forecast

2. News : "Goldman Sachs' energy equity research team, which predicted earlier this year that crude oil could spike as high as $200 a barrel, slashed its forecast for 2009 on Friday, by $30, to just $45, as demand deteriorates."
Please read : http://www.arabianbusiness.com/540896-go…-price-forecast

3. News : "The annual average WTI price is now projected to be $100 per barrel in 2008 and $51 in 2009. "

Please read : <link removed>

As you can see nobody knows! We are on our own. But we can have some food for thought. Our own points...
Let me enumerate a few which collectively could matter our prediction.

1. Credit crunch - new projects in trouble.New drilling rigs and platforms.
2. Low oil prices - Again new projects will have trouble. Oil exporting countries are now worried about recession.
3. Opec decisions soon coming. OPEC has pressure from the member countries.
4. Reduced spending due to growing unemployment.
5. Alternative energies are not taking off as fast as they should.
6. Oil transportation (ships/pipelines) cost factors - aggravated by the piracy problems.
7. New explorations and oil finds.

Any more inputs from you guys there?

2

Monday, December 15th 2008, 5:58pm

Severity of the northern winter to affect 2009 oil prices

Nohito,

Maybe you should factor in the following :
Northern winter - more severe, more consumption.

3

Tuesday, January 13th 2009, 7:12pm

AFP : US government sees New York oil at 43 dlrs in 2009

We are all back from the holidays and done our homework. Back to thinking seriously about the oil prices and how they will affect us.

The heading of the news is from AFP : <link removed>

As we have been seeing that the estimates are continuously being lowered. Blame the falling demand and the supplies. Here is the full news, in case you guys cannot find it :

==========================================================================

WASHINGTON (AFP) — The US government said Tuesday that it sees the price of New York crude oil at 43.25 dollars a barrel in 2009, lowering a prior estimate due to plunging demand and substantial supplies.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA), part of the Department of Energy, has ratcheted down its 2009 forecasts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil several times.

In December the EIA projected oil at 51 dollars a barrel, down from 63.50 dollars seen in November and 112 dollars in October.

"The downward trend in oil prices continued in December as the worsening global economy weakened oil demand and the second Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement for substantial production cuts within a month has failed, thus far, to support substantially higher prices," it said.

"The outlook for supply and demand fundamentals indicates a fairly loose oil market balance over the next two years."

The EIA noted that the contract had fallen from record highs above 147 dollars in July and had averaged "near" 100 dollars in 2008.

"Under current economic assumptions and assuming no major crude oil supply disruptions," it said, WTI prices were expected to average 43.25 dollars per barrel in 2009 and 54.50 dollars per barrel in 2010.

"In this forecast, US real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 2.0 percent in 2009, leading to decreases in domestic energy consumption for all major fuels," it said.

"Economic recovery is projected to begin in 2010, with 2.0 percent year-over-year growth in GDP."

The EIA said the the global economic downturn pointed to declining oil consumption in 2009, while additional production capacity from both OPEC and non-OPEC nations should boost surplus production capacity, "reducing the likelihood of a renewed strong upward pressure on prices."

4

Sunday, January 18th 2009, 2:04am

What price target is OPEC looking at?

OPEC's production cut of 2.2 million dollars on 17th of December 2008 did not do much except for an initial rally.

Since September, OPEC has cut a total of 4.2 million barrels per day from its production to modify the fall in crude oil prices, which have plummeted by about 100 dollars per barrel since their record high of 147.50 dollars in July.

The attempt by OPEC towards the end of last year was probably around $70. But now, they seem to be trying to stabilise at around $45-46 . Even if it does stabilise at $45, the hard times for the countries depending on oil exports will continue.

We are at the beginning of the recession. What next?

5

Sunday, May 3rd 2009, 8:28am

Oil prices at $53

Everyone hopes to their own advantage, of course. The consumers want the oil prices down but the oil producers want the oil prices up.
So far the 2009 oil price have not seen a great rally like last year. Is it too calm now compared to last year? Is there a spike approaching?

Today it is $53. The highest oil price last month has been $53.65. I do see an upward trend, but will be very painfully slow, I think.
This is "my" prediction. Anybody has anything else to say?

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