Posts by Bob Peters

    Crude oil prices have witnessed the biggest weekly decline in 18 months amid the ongoing euro zone debt crisis and a sell-off in the global equity market.
    Oil prices declined from a high of around $86 earlier this month to $75 per barrel at the New York Mercantile Exchange. However, Brent crude has been resilient. The near-month June Brent contract on the London’s ICE futures exchange was trading well over $81 a barrel.

    The International Energy Agency on Wednesday said global oil demand growth would be slightly lower than earlier estimates. The agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast by 50,000 barrels per day to 1.62 million bpd from its estimate last month.

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    Oil Rig Jobs

    This is an extract from : <link removed>

    The Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) oil export pipeline, operated by BP, has today started loading the 1000th cargo of oil transported from the Sangachal terminal near Baku across Azerbaijan, Georgia and Turkey to Ceyhan, BP Azerbaijan said in a press release.

    The 1000th tanker – the British Kestrel, arrived at the Ceyhan Marine Terminal on December 17 and will depart for Rotterdam as soon as the loading is completed.

    The 1000th tanker, which is being loaded simultaneously with the 999th cargo, will take on board approximately 600,000 barrels of crude oil. The oil transported via BTC to world markets mainly comes from the Azeri-Chirag-Gunashli (ACG) and Shah Deniz fields in the Azerbaijan sector of the Caspian Sea. The next - 1001st tanker, “Baku”, is expected to sail during this weekend, carrying crude oil belonging to SOCAR (Azerbaijan’s State Oil Company).

    The total volume of oil exported via BTC to date is about 791 million barrels (about 106 million tonnes). The current export rate via BTC is about 850,000 barrels per day with the highest daily flow-rate to date being 1,006,505 million barrels.

    The 1768km BTC pipeline allows over one million barrels of oil a day to be exported safely and responsibly from the Caspian without increasing tanker traffic through the already crowded Turkish Straits.

    The pipeline uses 46/42/34” diameter pipe. It has eight pump stations and 98 valve stations across the three transit countries. The pipeline crosses more than 1500 rivers and climbs to a high point of 2,800 metres before returning to sea level at Ceyhan.

    Since the start of the pipeline project BTC Co. has spent $10 million in Azerbaijan alone on sustainable development projects. For the three countries the respective number is around $64 million. Overall the company has worked with 550 communities (approximately 730,000 people) along its length and has implemented over 1000 sustainable development initiatives and these will continue in the future.
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    Worldoils Notes : World Oil, Gas and Offshore News

    This is an extract from : http://in.reuters.com/article/busine…-44839220091218

    LONDON (Reuters) - U.S crude oil is expected to rise to an average of $76.40 a barrel in 2010, a Reuters poll showed on Friday, as global economic recovery solidifies and the demand for fuel begins to soak up available supply.

    The poll of 27 analysts showed a rising consensus forecast for the eighth consecutive month. In April of this year, the average forecast for 2010 was $65.95 a barrel.

    "We are now turning to a phase in which focus could shift from common factors - such as recovery in global demand - to specific factors such as capacity, demand and inventories for individual commodities," said Christine Tuxen at Danske Markets.

    "We continue to see oil testing $90 on a three-month horizon, and still see WTI averaging $83 next year," she said, using the acronym for West Texas Intermediate, the benchmark oil traded in the world's largest energy consumer.

    U.S. crude is expected to average $74.90 in the fourth quarter of 2009, up from $73.70 in the last poll.

    U.S. crude prices rose as high as $82 in October, retracing in November to below $70 on a strengthening dollar and excessive global supply.

    Analysts in the latest poll said U.S. crude would average $63.10 a barrel for 2009 as a whole, compared to a forecast of $60.80 in November.

    More at http://in.reuters.com/article/busine…lBrandChannel=0

    From what I am seeing that more and more land rigs are being deployed again. This has to happen with the oil prices gaining and also the stock markets rising.

    But these seem very impulsive investments. Much of the world says that there will be another slump as the financial stimulus that kept the markets active and soewhat afloat is drying out.

    Any comments?

    This is also an interestimng piece from Presstv at http://www.presstv.ir/detail.aspx?id…ctionid=3510213


    Iran's OPEC governor predicts a rise in oil prices for next year due to rising signs of recovery in the global economies.

    "There are hopes of likely recovery in oil market regarding demand capacity and the return of the global economy to the normal condition," Mohammad-Ali Khatibi told the Oil Ministry web site SHANA.

    Khatibi said a weak US currency was the main reason behind the current rise in oil prices as the dollar hit a 14-month low against a basket of currencies last week.

    "The recent oil prices show a better economic condition compared with the past and we should be confident that the 70 to 80 dollars prices will not have negative effects on the economic recovery," he said.

    Khatibi noted that 'oil prices could increase from the current levels' and an unexpected cold spell in the United States might push up the prices.

    The comments came as US crude for December delivery fell 12 cents to $79.43 a barrel while, London Brent oil was down 17 cents at $77.75 on Wednesday.

    Oil prices increased about 78 percent this year but it is still around 46 percent below a record high of $147 a barrel in July 2008.

    The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), which in September agreed to maintain output quotas at 24.845 million barrels per day, will hold its next meeting in Luanda, Angola, on December 22.

    There are speculations in the market that the 12-nation organization might raise output only if global oil stocks fall fast. :thumbup:

    Dear Suares,

    We need to stop for a moment and think how the information sources get the information. Some real points to note in a very practical world :
    Very few companies divulge information.
    Some more companies give some information only.
    Many companies do not even like others asking for information.
    For some, even if the information is given, it is generally the information that is required to be disclosed by law or for marketing.

    So the final question : How much percentage of the information by many agencies is true? While some information can be 100% true, can we say that some information may be just 10% true?

    Apparently, Iran is persuading the OPEC hard to reduce the output.

    When oil prices fell from US$147 a barrel earlier this year to a recent low of less that USD 60, inflation in Iran shot up to 30 percent, and the unemployment figures climbed to 11 percent. The International Monetary Fund estimates that, to keep its economy solvent, Iran needs US$75 a barrel for its oil.

    The easiest economic theory goes as follows : Drop the supply, the prices will rise provided the demand remains, of course. From what happened last, the drop in output did nothing. The oil prices still fell.

    But the economic theories are failing. There are too many negative parameters to account for in the supply-demand formula and analysing has become rather impossible.

    Everybody went away for a break. We could not help it. We were busy - watching the roller coaster at Wall Street and the other exchanges.

    It has not cooled off. The bumpy ride is on. We are getting used to this, I think. At least, I am.

    Looking at oil again...lowest in 13 months. Below USD 71. Happy consumers? No. The recession fear is still on.

    Taking one week at a time. :(

    Small piece of news about Chavez. But can be a big impact.

    May not happen too soon. The Dow Jones is falling badly today. Can see the wrinkles on the foreheads of the Opec's leaders.

    Some middle eastern countries have been overspending on infrastructure hoping to make the land green and lavish (very artificial) and attract the world's rich to live in the Middle East

    Even if this dream starts materialising, will there be sufficient inflow if people and sufficient funding generated to maintain the fancy and extravagant mega projects? Will the Middle East see a real crunch? Maybe we look at this one year from now? :S

    1. From the Wall Street Journal : <link removed>

    Merrill Lynch was the latest to cut its 2009 global growth forecast, with the bank now expecting oil demand to grow by 400,000 barrels a day, down from an earlier prediction of 783,000 barrels a day. Analyst Francisco Blanch cut his 2009 price forecast to $90 a barrel from $107.

    2. From Bloomberg : <link removed>

    Crude-oil prices may fall as low as $50 a barrel next year, about half current levels, in the ``unlikely'' event of a global recession, weighing on shares of petroleum producers, Merrill Lynch & Co. said.

    Such a scenario, where global growth in Gross Domestic Product falls to 1.5 percent, isn't the base-case forecast, the bank said today in a report. Merrill cut its 2009 average price estimatefor West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark oil grade, by 16 percent to $90, citing falling demand and the start of new fields in Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries.

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    For me, it is good to read, digest and watch. Still so much uncertainty about the bailout exit which will impact the consumption.

    Pigs can even break apart into pieces in the pipeline. Recovery of a broken piece is a problem, but a second problem. The first problem, I think, is to find the broken piece is stuck.

    I have read a piece about a "scraper pig" breaking into pieces in the 800-mile long Alaskan pipeline. :
    <link removed>

    I can speak for the maritime industry.

    I can enumerate many reasons below. When some will be accepted by some, others may not be accepted.
    I will enumerate those which may give food for thought for solutions :

    1. The speed of turnaround has increased. The work is harder now.
    2. Too much interference (and consequent remote control) from the office without the feel of the heat in the actual location.
    3. In some cases, low salaries.
    4. Too much legislation.
    5. To many inspections & audits.
    6. Too few staff.
    7. Personnel have periodic exams and courses to keep themselves upto date.
    8. Too many personnel certificatations needed.

    It can be agreed without a doubt that training and certification is needed for safety and eficiency. True.
    But unfortunately, this is one of the factors that frustrates too. Any solutions?