The crude oil price for end June 2010 poll is going interesting.
Oil Price Forecast 2010 - Crude Oil Forecast 2010 - What will the Crude Oil prices be in June 2010?
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Posts by Barth
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The new CNG concept with the designation pressurised natural gas (PNG® ) carrier is a Knutsen OAS Shipping registered trade-mark. The gas is stored under normal pressure in vertical cylinders on-board the vessel. The concept is based on several patents pending solutions. PNG will not require sophisticated processing to maintain the gas stored in the containment system. Due to the operation under ambient temperatures, no isolation will be required to prevent heating during the voyage. The vertical cylinders will be prepared according to three main principles:
- design, material selection and testing regime for the cylinder is according to the recognised offshore pipeline code DNV-OS-F101 (similar to ISO/DIS 13623);
- end caps designed according to the International Gas Code (IGC) but with a minimum wall thickness not less than the cylinder wall; and
- all material used for cargo containment piping, cargo deck piping, valves and fittings is NV 316 or similar, complying with the requirements for manufacture survey and certification given by normal rules for classification of ships.
The vessel itself is straightforward vessel design. Some special vessel arrangement is required to ensure maximum safety and functionality for the new application.This is a part extract from http://www.touchoilandgas.com/pressurised-na…ural-a62-1.html
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Kuwaiti Oil Minister Sheikh Ahmad Abdullah al-Sabah said on Thursday that OPEC will step in to alter output if crude prices top 100 dollars a barrel.
"If prices of oil go above 100 (dollars), then OPEC will meet to take a decision on production levels," in a bid to boost supplies, the Kuwaiti minister told reporters outside parliament.But Sheikh Ahmad stressed that any decision will greatly depend on prevailing "market situations and supply and demand."
Above is an extract from AFP news.
My question : Will OPEC really try to control the oil price if it touches $100?
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Our poll for June 2010 is going well with over 550 participations so far.
But why have a poll? Is it because there is no other method of prediction?
Is it possible to use statistical forecasting techniques and get a good result that matches reality? NO! - I think.Oil prices have defied the mathematical and statistical techniques. As we say, we are "on our own" and we have to guess right for OURSELVES.
The institutions who predict prices, themselves change their predictions as the months go by.
Let us see how this poll (which is a pulse of the readers), matches the real prices on the 31st of December 2010.
Please feel free to add your view to the poll and comment.
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Hello Stattman.
What is your opinion about investment in Marcellus Shale?
I read the following a while ago.-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Japanese firm to invest $1.4 billion in Marcellus operationBy Andrew Maykuth
Inquirer Staff Writer
In the latest signal that global money is flowing into Pennsylvania'snatural-gas fields, Japanese giant Mitsui & Co. is investing $1.4 billion in Marcellus Shale gas drilling - and may sink in billions more in the next decade.
Mitsui yesterday agreed to buy a 32.5 percent stake in the Marcellus Shale natural-gas operations of Anadarko PetroleumCorp., the Houstonglobal energy firm that has interests in 712,000 acres in seven Pennsylvania counties. Anadarko is the largest leaseholder in Pennsylvania state forests, with 128,000 acres.
The Mitsui investment will fund all Anadarko's development costs in 2010, and 90 percent of its remaining costs through 2013. Mitsui also has an option to buy a 32.5 percent share of Anadarko's existing wells and to fund additional acreage acquisitions.
The Tokyocompany expects to invest up to $4 billion over 10 years in the partnership, which would produce up to 460 million cubic feet of natural gas a day at its peak.
"We continue to ramp up our activities in the Marcellus and anticipate drilling more than 4,500 wells over the coming years," said Anadarko chief executive Jim Hackett.
There were a total of 768 Marcellus wells drilled in the entire state last year.
The investment is the latest indication that large oil and gas investors, which abandoned Pennsylvania in recent decades, are rushing back to exploit the Marcellus boom. In December, ExxonMobilagreed to buy XTO Energy, a Texasgas producer with substantial acreage in the state.
Mitsui, Japan's second largest trading company, says its investment is a 60-year play and is looking at expanding its shale-gas business in other areas in the United States.
"The U.S. will be a major gas market in years ahead, and it needs vast investment in production infrastructure," Hiroshi Sakurai, an analyst at Mizuho Investors Securities Co. in Tokyo, told Bloomberg Business News.
Anadarko's acreage is concentrated in Centre, Clinton, Lycoming, Sullivan, Bradford, Tioga, and Potter Counties.-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
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This is an extract from http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/financ…-this-year.html
Jeff Rubin, an economist who correctly forecast that oil would reach $100, is predicting that it will hit that level again by the end of this year.
Mr Rubin, who was the chief economist at Canadian bank CIBC and published a book on the energy of economics last year, told Bloomberg News in an interview that "it’s safe to say that we’ll see triple-digit oil prices by the fourth quarter of this year."
The emerging economies of China and India will help drive demand for oil, according to Mr Rubin, who expects crude prices to reach $90 a barrel during the first quarter of this year.
Oil prices have jumped for the past 10 days as the cold weather sweeping the US, Europe and parts of Asia fuels demand for the commodity. It was trading at about $82 a barrel in early trading in New York.
Oil peaked at close to $147 a barrel in July 2008 and then tumbled sharply, falling to below $40 a barrel in early 2009, as the global downturn dented demand. Mr Rubin, who last year wrote “Why Your World is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller”, expects oil to hit $200 by 2012.
“When we get into 2011 or 2012 and we start to deal with prices of $120 a barrel, $147 a barrel, $160 a barrel, that’s where I think at least the global economy becomes very challenged,” Mr Rubin told Bloomberg.
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This is an extract from http://www.channelnewsasia.com/stories/afp_wo…1029274/1/.html
Crude oil prices fell on Thursday in New York after 10 consecutive sessions of gains as a weaker dollar, a Chinese interest rate hike and abundant supply fanned demand worries.
New York's main futures contract, light sweet crude for February delivery, shed 52 cents to close at 82.66 dollars a barrel.
The decline snapped the 10-session winning streak that had brought the benchmark contract to its highest level since October 2008.
In London, Brent North Sea crude for February dropped 38 cents to settle at 81.51 dollars.
The dollar firmed after Japan's new finance minister, Naoto Kan, spooked financial markets with a call for a weaker yen, raising speculation about government intervention in the market.
A stronger dollar often tends to dampen demand for dollar-priced crude oil and other commodities.
On Wednesday, when the dollar was weaker, oil prices rose despite a weaker-than-expected US government report on energy stockpiles.
"Oil is pulling back on news that China's central bank raised interest rates on its three-month bills for the first time since August, a day after it promised to keep credit growth in check," said Phil Flynn of PFG Best.
"This slowdown helped end some bullish momentum that was achieved in yesterday's session."
Traders were looking at signs of weakening energy demand in the United States, the world's biggest oil consumer, despite bitter cold weather sweeping across the northern hemisphere.
A weekly report on Wednesday by the US Department of Energy (DoE) showed that crude oil reserves rose 1.3 million barrels in the week ending January 1, instead of the expected drop of some 300,000 barrels.
Stockpiles of distillates - including heating fuel and diesel - fell 300,000 barrels in the week, much less than the average analyst forecast of a drop of 1.8 million barrels.
"The inventory statistics were very bearish," said Mitsubishi Corp. analyst Tony Nunan.
"A much bigger draw was expected but... it got a lot colder after that report so we could see much bigger draws in inventories next week."
Nunan added that geopolitical factors including terrorism concerns in Yemen following the attempted Christmas Day bombing of a Northwest Airlines flight and tensions between the US and Iran could send prices higher.
"I think that a lot of people realise that there is still a big threat in Yemen which is right next to Saudi Arabia, so that could be a big geopolitical risk issue."
Saudi Arabia is the largest oil producer in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the cartel that supplies about 40 percent of the world's crude.
In another development, Iraq and Iran announced on Thursday they would hold talks next week aimed at defining their borders and resolving a dispute over an oil well that has stoked regional tensions and driven up crude oil prices. - AFP/de
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The Burj Dubai, immediately renamed the Burj Khalifa after the ruler of neighboring Abu Dhabi who had to bail the emirate out, opened on Monday with a lavish ceremony announcing the world's tallest tower.
The so-called "skyscraper curse," according to which countries that build such tall structures end up in economic decline. That theory was postulated by Deutsche Bank analyst Andrew Lawrence in 1999 based on cases over the last 100 years. In 1930 and 1931, when the Chrysler Building and the Empire State Building were completed in New York City, the U.S. stock market crashed, triggering the Great Depression.
In the mid-1970s, the World Trade Center was completed in New York, while the Sears Tower opened in Chicago, but an economic slump soon followed due to the global oil shock. In 1998, when the Petronas Twin Towers were completed in Kuala Lumpur, Asia was in the grip of a financial crisis. And Dubai was hit by a financial crisis at the end of last year, when the Burj Khalifa was close to completion.
What needs to be seen is whether the skyscraper will have enough occupancy with the large area that it has. Not all analysts feel that occupancy will be a problem. Occupancy fears in the past have not lasted long for some large and tall buildings.
Why this topic here. The oil prices have crossed US$ 81pb. Maybe some reliefe for Burj Khalifa, Dubai and the debts?
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In the participation so far in predicting the prices of Crude oil on the 30th of June 2010, we have the following results :
21% between $65 & $75
19% between $75 & $85
19% between $96 & $105
15% between $85 & $95
Is this a better way ofr predicting than lengthy analysis? I do not know. many people do not know.
But what can be observed is that the predictions by various analysts keep changing with time. As we have heard before - we are on our own and we should make our own predictions. In today's world one thing is sure - things change very fast. So do the oil prices and the factors that influence the oil prices.
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This is an extract from http://www.bloggingstocks.com/2009/10/06/t-b…ove-80-in-2010/
Energy/oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens wants those investors who are expecting oil's price to drop amid an oil supply glut to know they are likely to be on the wrong side of history, and fairly soon.
Pickens Tuesday reiterated his forecast that oil prices will pass $75 per barrel before the end of 2009, and move considerably higher in 2010, CNBC reported.
"You'll see $85-$90 before the year ends," he said, CNBC reported. Pickens added that he wouldn't be surprised if oil prices topped $100, and added that he expects oil's price to average $80 per barrel next year. Oil traded Tuesday at mid-day up $1.45 to $71.73 per barrel.
Pickens favors increased use of renewable resources, including wind and solar, and, U.S.-based natural gas, in order to decrease U.S. imports of oil and to enhance foreign policy flexibility, among other benefits.
Energy Analysis: Pickens, among others, argues that ramping GDP growth in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, will contribute to the resumption of global oil demand increases in 2010. The prospect of that increased emerging market demand, along with the weak dollar, and talk that certain economic powers (China, France, Brazil, Russia) are becoming increasingly concerned about a further decline in the dollar, due to large U.S. budget deficits, has kept oil's price high, despite the U.S./global recessions and slack demand conditions.
Assuming global economic growth accelerates to 5 percent in two years, it's easy to see how oil's price could hit Boone's 2010 forecast. But even short-term, prices could advance substantially: factor-in a cold U.S. winter and/or above-trend U.S. GDP growth with a return to net monthly job gains (more drivers on U.S. roads), and a plausible argument can be made for an oil price above $80 in 2009.
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The chance of a double-dip recession is increasing because of risks related to ending global monetary and fiscal stimulus. This means that the oil demand may fall again.
There are many pundits in the market, some of whom predict BOOM and some of who predict GLOOM.
Whom do we trust now? I have seen many people taking opinions from others at every opportunity of a casual talk. Does this help? Are the pundits accurate?
We think that, at this stage of uncertainty, it is best to be a bit pessimistic.
Go ahead and guess the price of Crude Oil on 30th of June 2010.
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Thanks for the poll. I will be watching this.
I can say one thing.... we shall not be seeing $50 for a long time ahead. Maybe never.
IMHO
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The economic slowdown + the fear of a recession are contributing to the decreasing demand for oil in the developed countries as well as the developing countries.
Shall we have a poll on what the general opinion is, and the forecast for the oil prices on the 31st of May 2009? Please join the poll.....
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We are all back from the holidays and done our homework. Back to thinking seriously about the oil prices and how they will affect us.
The heading of the news is from AFP : <link removed>
As we have been seeing that the estimates are continuously being lowered. Blame the falling demand and the supplies. Here is the full news, in case you guys cannot find it :
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WASHINGTON (AFP) — The US government said Tuesday that it sees the price of New York crude oil at 43.25 dollars a barrel in 2009, lowering a prior estimate due to plunging demand and substantial supplies.
The Energy Information Administration (EIA), part of the Department of Energy, has ratcheted down its 2009 forecasts for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil several times.
In December the EIA projected oil at 51 dollars a barrel, down from 63.50 dollars seen in November and 112 dollars in October.
"The downward trend in oil prices continued in December as the worsening global economy weakened oil demand and the second Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) agreement for substantial production cuts within a month has failed, thus far, to support substantially higher prices," it said.
"The outlook for supply and demand fundamentals indicates a fairly loose oil market balance over the next two years."
The EIA noted that the contract had fallen from record highs above 147 dollars in July and had averaged "near" 100 dollars in 2008.
"Under current economic assumptions and assuming no major crude oil supply disruptions," it said, WTI prices were expected to average 43.25 dollars per barrel in 2009 and 54.50 dollars per barrel in 2010.
"In this forecast, US real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 2.0 percent in 2009, leading to decreases in domestic energy consumption for all major fuels," it said.
"Economic recovery is projected to begin in 2010, with 2.0 percent year-over-year growth in GDP."
The EIA said the the global economic downturn pointed to declining oil consumption in 2009, while additional production capacity from both OPEC and non-OPEC nations should boost surplus production capacity, "reducing the likelihood of a renewed strong upward pressure on prices."
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This is a revisited topic.
The 13-member Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) may decide to cut oil output in their scheduled meeting on November 29 in Cairo and on December 17 in Oran.
Just before the October meeting, the oil prices fell even though the world knew that OPEC was going cut oil output. This time it is rallying. Today is Friday, 28th of November - the last day before the next OPEC meeting. This may be a day to watch.
This is the day to see if the oil output cut has more influence on the oil prices or the dropping oil demand/market sentiment has more influence.
There is a poll in this forum for guessing the oil prices end Dec 2008 : https://www.worldoils.com/oilforum/index…ead&threadID=58
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Dear Rig-a-Dig Oil,
The link that you have pasted is not complete. Could you paste the proper link?
This could be interesting reading.Thanks
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Dear Bob,
Looks like all the investors who had moved into the oil market and had caused the super high oil prices have moved out.
Combined with the Financial crisis and the resulting lesser oil consumption(predicted) will cause a drop further.Will it be too much optimism if we hope that the oil prices fall below $80?
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Hi guys...
Found a pig manufacurer's site which gives more information on pigs : <link removed>
They divide pig tasks into 3 categories :
Utility pigs
In-line inspection pigs
Gel pigsThey have divided utility pipeline pigs into two groups based upon their fundamental purpose:
Cleaning pigs
Sealing pigsThen there are various types or forms of pigs :
Mandrel pigs
Foam pigs
Solid cast pigs
Spherical pigsThere is more at the site.
