Posts by Oilguy

Good Times for Singapore's Rig Builders

Enticed by oil prices hovering around 22-year highs, oil companies are ramping up exploration and developing fields that made little economic sense in the past. They are also replacing an aging fleet of rigs, many of which were built more than 25 years ago in a burst of activity after the oil shock in the mid-1970s. Record-high oil prices turning out to be profitable for two Singapore companies. Keppel and SembCorp Marine have billions of dollars worth of orders for new rigs that will keep their earnings healthy for several years to come. The two companies have won all the 11 orders for jackup rigs placed worldwide this year, beating South Korean rivals Hyundai Heavy Industries and Daewoo Shipbuilding & Marine Engineering.

A huge S$990 million order for four jackup rigs by AP Moller-Maersk is among the eight contracts Keppel has won this year, helping its order book grow to S$5 billion from S$3.4 billion at end-2004. Smaller peer SembMarine has also seen its order book balloon to S$3.2 billion after the recent US$121 million contract to build a deep drilling offshore jackup rig for Norway's Awilco Offshore. It has won three such orders this year. It is expected that Keppel may this year win new orders of about S$3 billion, while SembMarine could get some S$1.8 billion in new business. Keppel and SembMarine together control about 70% of the global market for FPSO (floating, production, storage and offloading) conversion business and building jack-up rigs.

Keppel operates 16 yards across Asia-Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan, the Middle East and the North Sea, building jackup rigs, semi-submersibles and other specialized offshore rigs as well as designing, building, repairing and converting FPSOs. SembMarine runs four Singapore shipyards, including Sembawang. It also has yards in China, Brazil and Indonesia.

This is an extract from http://www.marinetalk.com/articles-marin…00101230IN.html

It is by pressure as well as by forcing out. It depends on place, type, whether it is a new well or a used well, oil type etc etc etc

You will need to have some patience and study a book. It is interesting. Have a go, you will want to know much more than your basic question as you learn.

Enjoy the reading & learning.

This is an extract from Nasdaq website at http://www.nasdaq.com/aspx/stock-mar…350/bbl-in-2011
EIA: WTI Crude Oil To Average $83.50/Bbl In 2011

NEW YORK -(Dow Jones)- The Energy Information Administration expects oil prices to gradually rise through the end of next year, the agency said Tuesday in its monthly short-term energy outlook.

Benchmark U.S. crude oil will on average cost $79.83 a barrel in 2010, up from the previous outlook for $78.67 a barrel, the agency said. Prices are seen increasing from an average $77 a barrel in the first quarter of 2010 to $85 a barrel by the fourth quarter of 2011. In 2011, prices will average $83.50 a barrel, the agency said.

Gasoline prices are expected to average $2.84 a gallon this year, up 1 cent from the previous forecast, while diesel prices are seen averaging $2.98 a gallon this year, up 2 cents from last month's outlook. In 2011, gasoline is seen averaging $2.96 a gallon and diesel $3.14 a gallon.

Prices are expected to rise as "the world oil market should gradually tighten in 2010 and 2011, provided the global economic recovery continues as projected," the EIA said. Economic growth in developed economies that make up the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development should increase from 1.2% in 2010 to 2.7% in 2011.

The EIA said that residential heating oil prices will average $2.78 a gallon this winter, up 1 cent from the previous forecast.
------------------------------------------------

Worldoils Notes : World Oil, Gas and Offshore

Oil and Gas Conferences

Getenergy for Libya in Tripoli, Libya

Name of the Event : Getenergy for Libya
Start date : 8 - Dec - 2009
End date : 9 - Dec - 2009
Location : Petroleum Training and Qualifying Institute (PTQI)
City : Tripoli { See in a Google map }
Country : Libya

Organising Company : Getenergy Ltd
Contact person : Gustavo Aranda
Contact telephone : +44 (0)207 0965600
Contact email : Gustavo@getenergyevent.com
Event website : Go to the event website > > >

Oman expects oil prices to range between $70 and $80 a barrel in 2010, some 40% to 60% more than the $50 estimate the country is using for to calculate its budget, Oman's national economy minister said on 24th Nov 2009.

I am looking for some expert opinions from all of you here.

I feel that if Obama does a good thrust and facailitates alternative fuels research and supports clean fuels cars etc, the oil prices may not reach very high in the long run. The problem is that a Good alternative solution is still quite a way off...if there is one of course.

Any comments?

Nohito,

Maybe you should factor in the following :
Northern winter - more severe, more consumption.

Many reasons :

Negative sentiment in the market
OPEC may not be able to cut production to the limit they want to.
Decreased oil consumption

We do not need many more reasons. The above are sufficient to keep the prices very low.

Heng Lee predicted that the Oil will fall below $55 by end October.
It did not drop below $55 end October but is did fall below $50 in November.

Somewhere else in this forum, there is a poll to guess the price at the end of Dec 2008.

Year end 2008, Beginning 2009 - oil price forecast poll

Let us see who may be right here.

Thought 1 on Biofuels :
This is from the general people of the world. With the prices of oil reaching over $130 a barrel a few days ago, people are hoping that an alternative energy source can be found. One of the answers is Biofuels. If Biofuels was available in abundance, some pressure would of course be put on the OPEC and the crude prices could ease off.

Thought 2 on Biofuels :
This thought is voiced by the oil rich countries and they warn strongly against Biofuels. What they say is that if the prices of Biofuels was high, then the farmers woud grow the Biofuels making plants rather thn grow crops. This would cause a world shortage on food as well as increase the food prices. One way of keeping the prices of crude high?

What does an ordinary man do in the meantime? Look at the oil prices everyday and wonder. Today, fortunately, the prices have fallen to less than US$ 127 per barrel. Since many of us are not from oil rich countries, let us hope that the speculation ceases and we are back to realistic oil prices.

Then the question is : What is the realistic oil price???

Oil prices extended their slide Tuesday, closing below 120 dollars for the first time in three months, as signs of a slowing global economy raise doubts about demand.