Posts by Heng Lee

  • Crude Oil Price Forecast 2011

    U.S. crude oil is expected to rise to an average of US$78.91 a barrel in 2010, a Reuters poll found on Thursday, and analysts said medium-term economic improvement could spur investment in oil, sending prices higher. The poll of 32 analysts showed a rising consensus forecast for the 11th consecutive month. In April of last year, the average forecast for 2010 was US$65.95 a barrel. In February analysts forecast a year-end price of US$77.70. "As demand for gasoline rises this summer, and investors see oil as an attractive medium-term economic macro play, crude prices could move higher than we are currently forecasting," said Jason Schenker at Prestige Economics in Austin, Tex. "What we suspect is that the upper end of the price band has moved to an US$85 comfort zone, but that could mean short-term blips to US$90," said Lawrence Eagles at JPMorgan. "Later in the year, our price target of US$90 means intraday blips to US$100 are not impossible."

    This is an extract from the Financial Post : http://www.financialpost.com/story.html?id=2741479

    =============================================================

    Oil & Gas Directory

  • Saudi Arabia Warns On Rising Oil Price

    Saudi Arabia said Tuesday that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries won't let global oil markets get too tight, an indication the world's biggest crude exporter won't be shy about putting more barrels into the market to quell runaway oil prices.

    "We will never allow [the oil market to] get to the point where it puts too much pressure on prices," Saudi Arabia Oil Minister Ali Naimi told journalists here ahead of OPEC's Wednesday production policy meeting.


    Mr. Naimi's comments came as U.S. oil prices again topped $80 a barrel, above the kingdom's preferred range of $75 to $80 a barrel marked last year by King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia. On the New York Mercantile Exchange Tuesday, light, sweet crude futures for April delivery gained $1.90, or 2.4%, to $81.70 a barrel.


    "Mr. Naimi is reminding the market that the kingdom's policy of meeting customers' needs is still in place and any major and sustained divergence from the preferred $70 to $80 price zone can be headed off as and when necessary," said Bill Farren-Price of consultancy Petroleum Policy Intelligence.

    A Saudi oil official here said the kingdom "will supply what its customers demand."

    As OPEC's leading member and the moderate voice that keeps the group's more hawkish nations in check, Saudi Arabia sits on a mountain of spare production capacity of more than four million barrels a day that it could discharge into world markets to damp prices. The kingdom has helped rally other OPEC states over the past year around the notion—which isn't formal OPEC policy—of a preferred price level of between $70 and $80 a barrel.

  • Drydocks World - Dubai delivers 3-D seismic vessel Polarcus Nadia

    Drydocks World - Dubai marked a high point in its sophisticated new building capability with the delivery of Polarcus Nadia, the most advanced seismic vessel built at the yard to date.

    The vessel, first of a series of four vessels to be built at Drydocks World – Dubai (DDW-D), is to be part of the Polarcus fleet, the Dubai-based, leading marine geophysical company specialising in towed streamer marine data acquisition across the world.

    The double-hulled, 88.3 metre long Polarcus Nadia is a highly advanced 3D seismic vessel. The Dubai yard’s all-inclusive expertise was utilized in full force to make the purpose-built vessel meet the stringent demands of offshore seismic operators. The vessel is capable of towing up to 12 steamers.

    Polarcus Nadia is of Ulstein SX 124 design and incorporates a number of innovative features. The technology adheres to the highest environment standards. It has a diesel-electric propulsion system and high specification catalytic converters. The vessel also includes a range of advanced safety features including a DP 2 dynamic positioning system and bilge water cleaning that conforms to international norms.

    MP Singh, Director – New Building, DDW-D, said: “The delivery of Polarcus Nadia is a milestone for us in the newbuilding division. This is the most advanced vessel built at the yard, which shows how far we have come in handling highly sophisticated projects. The work was completed well within time – demonstrating our yard’s reliability and capability to meet deadlines.”

    DDW-D has been on a comprehensive facility and service expansion drive with the aim to achieve highest level capability in taking up most sophisticated projects in newbuilding, repair and conversion. The yard has won several international recognitions this year, including the Lloyd’s List Shipbuilding/Shiprepair Award 2009. It has been named the Lloyd’s List Shipyard of the Year for four consecutive years, from 2005 to 2008.

  • Crude Oil price forecast 2009 - What will it be in December 2009?

    On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration released its monthly short-term energy outlook, forecasting higher oil and fuel prices for the coming year than previously thought.

    According to the report, benchmark US crude oil will cost an average of $78.13 a barrel in 2010, up from a previous estimate of $72.42 a barrel. Moreover, the new estimate marks a 26% increase over the expected average price for 2009, which was $62 per barrel. The EIA predicts that by December 2010, oil prices could hit $81 a barrel, “assuming US and world economic conditions continue to improve.”

    In addition, the EIA speculates that residential heating oil prices will average $2.80 a gallon, up 17 cents from the previous winter. Oil consumers will likely recall the volatility with which oil prices fluctuated last year; when the price of oil hit $4 per gallon in September, many customers agreed to price-lock contracts, fearing that prices would climb further as winter approached. As it happened, oil prices fell later in the year, and an untold number of customers paid much more for heating oil than they would have, had they not singed price-lock contracts.

    The EIA also raised its forecast for the final quarter of 2009, as oil prices have risen to $80 a barrel in recent weeks, well above earlier predictions. The new forecast pegs oil at an average of $77.41 a barrel, with gasoline at $2.66 a gallon and diesel at $2.79 a gallon.

    This is an extract from http://www.heatingoil.com/blog/eia-raise…oil-prices1111/

  • Will the oil demand increase in 2010?

    This is an extract from http://www.businessinsider.com/chinas-demand-…x-months-2009-9

    China's demand for oil fell 5.4% in August from July, according a Platts analysis. This is the first month over month drop since March.

    Refined product stockpiles held by Sinopec and PetroChina at the end of July were some 30% higher than the corresponding period of 2008 and had crept up 7% from a month ago, Chinese media reported earlier. At the same time, July oil products sales in China fell about 6% from a year ago and shrank 10% from June.

    Refiners responded by cutting collective crude throughput in August by 1.7% from July to 32.56 million metric tons or 7.7 million barrels per day -- the first monthly reduction since February 2009. Crude imports were cut by 5.9% from July to 18.48 million metric tons or 4.38 million barrels per day in August.

  • Will the oil demand increase in 2010?

    As reported by Bloomberg on Sept 22nd, Aramco sees that there will be idle oil fields in 2010.

    Global demand for oil is expected to rise by 1.27 million barrels a day, or 1.5 percent, next year, according to the International Energy Agency, not enough for Saudi Arabia to resume all of its idled fields.

  • Pakistan, Iran sign gas pipeline agreement

    ISLAMABAD: Pakistan and Iran have signed an agreement to activate a bilateral gas pipeline project, without India's participation, after 14 years of negotiations over what was initially framed as the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) gas pipeline project.

    Sources in the ministry of petroleum and natural resources told Daily Times here on Saturday that Pakistan Interstate Gas Company (PIGC) and the Iranian National Oil Company (INOC) signed the agreement late Friday in Turkey.

    The official said that the agreement would be governed through a third country law that was why it was signed in Turkey.

    Under the gas sale purchase agreement, Iran would provide 750 million cubic feet of gas per day to Pakistan for the next 25 years, which would generate 4000MW of electricity. Officials in Islamabad termed the deal a major breakthrough and an achievement that would greatly help Pakistan meet its energy needs.

    The project, when initially mooted in 1994, was intended to carry gas from Iran to Pakistan and on to India. New Delhi withdrew from the talks last year over repeated disputes on prices, transit fees and security issues.

    The pipeline project would be completed by 2013, the sources maintained. "The gas pipeline would begin from Gawadar near Iranian border having 800 kilometer length. The determination of gas price would be linked with oil prices in the international market but will be less than 25 percent as compared to crude oil prices," sources maintained.

    Officials of the ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources termed the agreement as landmark achievement of the government and expressed the hope the it would help Pakistan to meet shortfall both for commercial and domestic purposes.

    The country urgently needed gas and the agreement would greatly help the country to over come the shortfall.

    Another official of the concerned ministry said that the new exploration and production petroleum policy 2009 with alluring incentives would definitely accelerate the investment in the oil and gas sector. Pakistan was rich in oil and gas, particularly Balochistan. If the government manages to enforce its writ by giving the ownership feeling to the local people, then aggressive oil and gas exploration could be carried out. This was the only way left for Pakistan to cater to the energy needs of the country.

    This article is from http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/ at : http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/default.asp?pa…_7-6-2009_pg5_4

  • Will the oil price jump like last year?

    Interesting article :

    ALGIERS (AFP) — Crude oil wil remain priced at around 65 to 70 dollars a barrel until the end of 2009 before rising, Algeria's Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said Saturday, the APS agency reported.

    "The market will stay within a band of 65 to 70 dollars until the end of 2009, because (US) fuel consumption will rise in summer, but it is difficult to predict the market," Khelil said in Algiers.


    Read more here : <link removed>

    Worldoils Notes : Oil Prices

  • What does the BTC pipeline have to do with oil prices?

    The BTC pipeline is a problem of many countries when it shuts down.

    It is vulnerable, but if all goes well, a huge economic success. Some treaties must be in place, but they cannot cover the pipeline's vulnerability.

    As the discussion progresses, do not miss the Northern pasage opening up because of the ice melting. This will find newer routes, technology and buyers.