Posts by Kyung

Hello John_david

Could you please elaborate further.

Oil/gas prices are one one of the most complex problems in today's financial world.
Everybody is looking for answers. But there are no definite answers?

Take the Peak Oil Theory for instance. Has the Oil peaked? Is it going to peak in 2011?
I am a new comer into this part and I am learning. But I find contradicting data.

Hope to hear again from you with more enlightening thoughts.

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Oil prices could stay within the $70-$80 a barrel range for 10 years, the Opec oil cartel said yesterday, arguing that lower prices would deter investment in new energy supply but higher prices would hamper economic growth.

Opec cautioned that its assumptions did not reflect whether such a price development was likely or desirable. But by assuming the $70-$80 a barrel range, the group appears to be trying to anchor oil market expectations around $75, a price level which Saudi Arabia, Opec's de facto leader, describes as "fair".

While watching various analysts predict the oil prices at the end of the year is interesting, The investors seem to be exercising a lot of caution still.
Can be seen from the market??

General Electric recently inked a $400 million contract with developers of an Australian natural gas field that will divert 3.3 million tons of CO2 a year. This will be done by concentrating carbon dioxide gas created from the extraction of natural gas and injecting it into an undersea geologic formation. Despite the large amount of carbon dioxide being diverted by this project, the volume only represents .01% of the carbon generated by humans. This does not count the carbon that will be abated when the relatively clean natural gas harvested here is burned in lieu of coal, which represents a total carbon savings that is the equivalent of removing two-thirds of Australian vehicles from the road.

General Electric was awarded the contract by Chevron, which owns 50% of the development rights. ExxonMobil and Shell both own 25% as well. "I am delighted that GE Oil & Gas has been selected by Chevron to deliver this technologically complex project which will deliver cleaner energy on an unprecedented scale," said Claudi Santiago, President and CEO of GE Oil & Gas. "The contract consolidates our global LNG technology leadership position and our competitive edge in pioneering CO2 sequestration applications. Gorgon demonstrates our customer commitment to Innovation Now solutions based on safe and reliable technology transfer and our partnership role in milestone projects shaping the future of world energy."

The United States Energy Information Administration expects oil and coal consumption to grow by 44% by 2030. The Gorgon underwater natural gas project is expected to produce "carbon-free" liquid natural gas economically through 2050. Gorgon's advantageous location in Western Australia has lead the the formation of export contracts between Australia and Asian countries like India, China, Japan, and Indonesia.

Safety concerns associated with geologic carbon storage include leakage, earthquakes, and catastrophic containment failures. Environmentalists are opposed to the project, citing the variety of unique and endangered species that are found on Barrow Islands, the area that will house this project. The area is already home to some 430 oil wells and is Australia's biggest producer of crude.

This is an extract from <link removed>

This is interesting too :

New Delhi: Indian state-owned energy giant, the Oil and Natural Gas Corporation, is considering purchase of Russian oil fields and companies, according to minister for petroleum and natural gas, Murli Deora.

According to Indian oil industry sources, the ONGC could buy either existing oil companies or new oil fields in Russia and new prospects could be in the Tomsk Region as well as in Russia's north.

In September, Deora visited Tomsk, where he held talks with governor Viktor Kress on participation of Indian oil companies in upcoming oil and gas projects in Russia.

"The governor invited us to take part in the development of new [oil] fields, and we will consider his offer," he said.

ONGC is the owner, via subsidiary ONGC Videsh Ltd. (OVL), of British oil company Imperial Energy, which holds production licenses for fields in west Siberia's Tomsk Region.
The Tomsk Region is rich in natural resources, particularly oil, natural gas, ferrous and non-ferrous metals, peat, and underground waters. Oil extraction and lumbering are the major business of the region's joint ventures.
Deora also said that India was interested in taking part in the Sakhalin-3 project, an oil and gas project in the Pacific. The ONGC is a 20 per cent stakeholder in Sakhalin-I.
India has invested $2.77 billion in Sakhalin-I, which is its single largest investment abroad. The project produces 23,000 barrels of oil and 58 million cubic feet of gas a day. The total recoverable reserves from the Sakhalin-1 field alone are estimated at 2.3 billion barrels of oil (307 million tonnes) and 17.1 trillion cubic feet of gas (485 billion cubic metres). At full capacity, India will get about 2.5 million tonnes of oil every year from the project.
Deora also let it be known that India would discuss energy cooperation at a meeting of the heads of major Russian and Indian enterprises, scheduled to take place ahead of a Russia-India summit in December.
India is the third-largest consumer of oil in Asia.
This is an extract from <link removed>

Please see these :

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125256979351998805.html

http://www.businessinsider.com/saudi-oil-ceo-…ing-back-2009-9

It just says that nobody can really predict. Remember the oil price rise of 2008. Can any theory hold ground on that oil spike. Could it have been predicted?
Blame it on the speculators. Many of them lost money. Looks like they are not speculating anymore with the same confidence.

Can we add a "speculation" parameter in the forecasting? Anyone can answer?

Hello Nirmal.

It is really not possible to clearly classify the oil rigs. This is because rigs today are multi-funtional.

The rig funtions could be drilling, production etc. Then the types dould be jackup, semi-sub, tension leg, Spar etc. Then there are some that are special like Sevan. These are more like a brand name for the rigs by Sevan Marine. These Sevan rigs could have the above funtions and also could be FPSO (Floating, Production, Storage, Offloading).

So, it is really not possible to CLEARLY classify the rigs, I think.

Some of the above cannot be even called "Rigs" and I would probably calle them "structures" or "assets".

Exxon Mobil Corp. and Qatar Petroleum announced the completion of one of the largest operating liquefied natural gas production facilities in the world.
The companies said they launched Qatargas 2 Train 5, which follows the start-up for Train 4 in the second quarter of 2009. Each facility can produce 7.8 million tons of LNG per year, which is twice as large as any other facility outside of Qatar, Exxon said.

"The start-up of Qatargas 2 Train 5 represents another technological milestone in our effort to increase global supplies of clean-burning natural gas," said Neil Duffin, president of Exxon Mobil Development Co.

The facility links natural gas production, liquefaction, shipping and regasification infrastructure into a single LNG development and supply unit.

The venture also includes a fleet of world-class Q-Max and Q-Flex liquefied natural gas carriers as well as a new terminal in Wales.

Above is an extract from http://www.upi.com/Energy_Resourc…76391252513488/

This is an extract fromhttp://http://www.reuters.com/article/GCA-Oil/idUSTRE58E2FI20090916

Evidence of an impending upturn in the world economy appears to be gathering but recovery will be slow and gradual, OPEC said on Tuesday, as the group left its world oil demand forecast for 2010 unchanged.

World oil demand was expected to fall 1.56 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 before rising 500,000 bpd in 2010, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, which supplies over a third of global oil, said in a monthly report.

For a while it looked like there would be an OGEC for the Gas exporting countries.
But apparently, it is GECF (Gas Exporting Countries Forum) with 15 member countries.

Khatibi(Iran's OPEC governor), said officials from the forum met in Moscow this week to decide on the agenda for the summit. He did not reveal the agenda but said the forum would 'discuss some very important issues'.

Khatibi had earlier said that the GECF would announce its secretary general in their first meeting.

Algeria, Bolivia, Brunei, Egypt, Equatorial Guinea, Indonesia, Iran, Malaysia, Nigeria, Qatar, Russia, Trinidad and Tobago, the UAE and Venezuela are members of the GECF.

Iran, Qatar and Russia -- holders of the world's largest gas reserves -- have separately created a 'gas troika' to expand trilateral gas cooperation and implement joint projects.

Everyone hopes to their own advantage, of course. The consumers want the oil prices down but the oil producers want the oil prices up.
So far the 2009 oil price have not seen a great rally like last year. Is it too calm now compared to last year? Is there a spike approaching?

Today it is $53. The highest oil price last month has been $53.65. I do see an upward trend, but will be very painfully slow, I think.
This is "my" prediction. Anybody has anything else to say?

According to a study commissioned by the EU, ship traffic in the Mediterranean, which reportedly already accounts for 15% of global ship traffic, will increase 23% in the next decade.

Even though there are international regulationsin place for preventing oil pollution from ships, a good coordinated approach to inspections of ships by the port states can help mitigate the risk. I think this is already in place, but how effective and forceful is what I do not know.

Exploration, transporation pipelines, oil loading port traffic... all seem to be on the rise in the Mediterranean.

Extract from "The Canadian Press" : <link removed>
Shares in North Sea oil producer Oilexco Inc. (TSX:OIL) slid more than 43 per cent in early Monday trading after the company announced delays in a debt financing.

Oilexco said Friday that "due to the unprecedented liquidity and volatility issues facing the credit markets" the closing of a refinancing of its current debt obligations and an increase in its debt availability from US$700 million to US$1 billion have been delayed.

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Sevan is also having problems. With the oil prices falling, many projects may turn out to be uneconomical and have problems. Next step, watch for the oil rig and offshore builders.

Just read this information :

The largest private capital project in U.S. history—the construction of a new pipeline to carry natural gas from Alaska's resource-rich North Slope to the rest of the country.

Length : 1,715 miles
Price : $ 26 billion
Time : At least a decade to build
Scheduled completion : 2018

Hopefully the Alaskan gas will be sold.

Dear friends.

I am looking for a LNG conference in Europe. I need a technical conference to deal with technical matters and meet technical persons.

Sorry guys, I am enjoying the smilies.

Further to what you have said....

Here is what Timesonline.com has to say on May 20th, 2008 :

Iraq dramatically increased the official size of its oil reserves yesterday after new data suggested that they could exceed Saudi Arabia’s and be the largest in the world.

The Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister told The Times that new exploration showed that his country has the world’s largest proven oil reserves, with as much as 350 billion barrels. The figure is triple the country’s present proven reserves and exceeds that of Saudi Arabia’s estimated 264 billion barrels of oil. Barham Salih said that the new estimate had been based on recent geological surveys and seismic data compiled by “reputable, international oil companies . . . This is a serious figure from credible sources.”

The Iraqi Government has yet to approve a national oil law that would allow foreign companies to invest. Mr Salih said that the delay was damaging Iraq’s ability to profit from oil output, robbing the country of potentially huge revenues. With oil selling for more than $125 dollars a barrel and demand rising, Mr Salih is frustrated that Iraq still struggles over the establishment of a regulatory framework. “There is a real debate in the Government and among political leaders about the type of oil management structures we should have. I am for liberalising this sector and allowing the private sector to come in to develop these vast resources.”

BP, Exxon Mobil, Chevron, Royal Dutch Shell and Total have been queuing for rights to exploit Iraqi reserves. Mr Salih confirmed that Iraq was negotiating the outlines of two-year deals with some of the companies. He was optimistic that a draft law could be approved in the near future.

More reading at : http://business.timesonline.co.uk/tol/business/i…icle3963637.ece

It is understood that there are unproven resources around Philipines and South Atlantic also. Anybody has any info on these places?

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