Crude Oil price forecast 2009 - What will it be in December 2009?

    • Crude Oil price forecast 2009 - What will it be in December 2009?

      Oil price forecast for 31st December 2009 435
      1.  
        Less than $45 (22) 5%
      2.  
        Between $46 and $55 (26) 6%
      3.  
        Between $56 and $65 (26) 6%
      4.  
        Between $66 and $75 (101) 23%
      5.  
        Between $76 and $85 (176) 40%
      6.  
        Between $86 and $95 (54) 12%
      7.  
        Between $96 and $105 (14) 3%
      8.  
        More than $106 (16) 4%
      It is always very difficult to predict and the greatest gurus can be wrong. This is because there are so many varying factors in the oil prices and these cannot be foreseen.

      There are however many thinkers and analysts who do come quite close to the actual figure. These people are the winners.

      For making investment decisions, we do need a prediction of some sort. Maybe we can add our views to the forecast poll and see if we were right.
      If adding a poll, please write your thoughts on why you think your predicted figure is right.

      Post was edited 1 time, last by Eliza ().

    • Rising or falling oil prices - my opinions

      Why the oil prices will not rise too much than the present level of USD 65 :
      Weak industrial production and many industries suffering
      Shrinking World Trade
      Reduced demand
      High unemployment
      Low investor confidence
      Controlled/reduced bank lending
      OPEC is maintaining the output

      Why the oil prices will not fall too much than the present level of USD 65 :
      The oil inventories are now at a sustainable level
      Rising stock market
    • Oil demand increasing again?

      Agree. But there are the two basic factors - supply and demand.

      I am waiting for a few more weeks to see if the world consumption is actually coming back on track or not. I think it is a bit too early to predict anything about the recovery of the economy.

      Could anyone pass some available authentic information?
    • Crude oil price forecast for 2010 and beyond

      If the oil price does cross $100 and up again..the chances that it will drop to 60 and below may also be doubtful.
      No theories here. Just a thought based on common sense, hoping the world has beccome wiser with less of sub primes etc
    • Will Obama's thrust for alternative fuels cause any oil price falls?

      I am looking for some expert opinions from all of you here.

      I feel that if Obama does a good thrust and facailitates alternative fuels research and supports clean fuels cars etc, the oil prices may not reach very high in the long run. The problem is that a Good alternative solution is still quite a way off...if there is one of course.

      Any comments? ?(
    • Why is the oil price falling again?

      Oil prices are heading down toward the $65-a-barrel mark as negative sentiment from last week's poor consumer confidence data dampened traders' mood to invest in equities across the globe.



      The International Energy Agency has already slashed its global oil demand forecast, following consistent contractions in gross domestic product of the economies.

      Economists are projecting oil demand across the world to rebound in 2010 and think it could rise by almost 1 percent on an annual basis over the following three years.

      But as of now, the confidence seems very low.
    • What is the real demand and what is the real crude oil price forecast

      Please see these :

      online.wsj.com/article/SB125256979351998805.html

      businessinsider.com/saudi-oil-…mand-bouncing-back-2009-9

      It just says that nobody can really predict. Remember the oil price rise of 2008. Can any theory hold ground on that oil spike. Could it have been predicted?
      Blame it on the speculators. Many of them lost money. Looks like they are not speculating anymore with the same confidence.

      Can we add a "speculation" parameter in the forecasting? Anyone can answer?
    • T. Boone Pickens sees average oil price above $80 in 2010

      This is an extract from bloggingstocks.com/2009/10/06/…l-price-above-80-in-2010/

      Energy/oil billionaire T. Boone Pickens wants those investors who are expecting oil's price to drop amid an oil supply glut to know they are likely to be on the wrong side of history, and fairly soon.

      Pickens Tuesday reiterated his forecast that oil prices will pass $75 per barrel before the end of 2009, and move considerably higher in 2010, CNBC reported.

      "You'll see $85-$90 before the year ends," he said, CNBC reported. Pickens added that he wouldn't be surprised if oil prices topped $100, and added that he expects oil's price to average $80 per barrel next year. Oil traded Tuesday at mid-day up $1.45 to $71.73 per barrel.

      Pickens favors increased use of renewable resources, including wind and solar, and, U.S.-based natural gas, in order to decrease U.S. imports of oil and to enhance foreign policy flexibility, among other benefits.

      Energy Analysis: Pickens, among others, argues that ramping GDP growth in emerging markets, particularly in Asia, will contribute to the resumption of global oil demand increases in 2010. The prospect of that increased emerging market demand, along with the weak dollar, and talk that certain economic powers (China, France, Brazil, Russia) are becoming increasingly concerned about a further decline in the dollar, due to large U.S. budget deficits, has kept oil's price high, despite the U.S./global recessions and slack demand conditions.

      Assuming global economic growth accelerates to 5 percent in two years, it's easy to see how oil's price could hit Boone's 2010 forecast. But even short-term, prices could advance substantially: factor-in a cold U.S. winter and/or above-trend U.S. GDP growth with a return to net monthly job gains (more drivers on U.S. roads), and a plausible argument can be made for an oil price above $80 in 2009.
    • EIA Raises 2009-2010 Forecast for Crude and Heating Oil Prices

      On Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration released its monthly short-term energy outlook, forecasting higher oil and fuel prices for the coming year than previously thought.

      According to the report, benchmark US crude oil will cost an average of $78.13 a barrel in 2010, up from a previous estimate of $72.42 a barrel. Moreover, the new estimate marks a 26% increase over the expected average price for 2009, which was $62 per barrel. The EIA predicts that by December 2010, oil prices could hit $81 a barrel, “assuming US and world economic conditions continue to improve.”

      In addition, the EIA speculates that residential heating oil prices will average $2.80 a gallon, up 17 cents from the previous winter. Oil consumers will likely recall the volatility with which oil prices fluctuated last year; when the price of oil hit $4 per gallon in September, many customers agreed to price-lock contracts, fearing that prices would climb further as winter approached. As it happened, oil prices fell later in the year, and an untold number of customers paid much more for heating oil than they would have, had they not singed price-lock contracts.

      The EIA also raised its forecast for the final quarter of 2009, as oil prices have risen to $80 a barrel in recent weeks, well above earlier predictions. The new forecast pegs oil at an average of $77.41 a barrel, with gasoline at $2.66 a gallon and diesel at $2.79 a gallon.

      This is an extract from heatingoil.com/blog/eia-raises…e-heating-oil-prices1111/
    • Ending 2009 oil prices - How the forecast went so far

      Hello all the fans out there.

      I have been analysing the oil price forecast of year ending 2009 which is above.

      40% of the votes so far said that the crude oil price would be between $76 & $85
      23% of the votes so far said that the crude oil price would be between $66 & $75

      The year has not ended yet and it is now USD 74.
      OPEC is very happy. They muy not change anything at the Angola summit.

      I did expect some change after the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit. But did not see anything significant.

      I would safey assume that we may be at USD 76 at the end of the year.

      Any comments?