Indonesia to Lead Growth of Oil Refining Capacity in South East Asia

The refining capacity in South East Asia is expected to increase by 79.1
million metric tons per annum (MMtpa) during 2010–2015. The growth in the
refining industry will be anchored by Indonesia during this period. Indonesia is
expected to account for 56% of the refining capacity additions for 2010–2015.
The increase in demand for refined products in the domestic market is responsible
for the capacity additions in South East Asia. Vietnam, Malaysia and Brunei are
expected to individually contribute more than 10% of the refining capacity additions.
The refining capacities in Singapore and Philippines are expected to remain
unchanged during 2010–2015.

National Oil Companies (NOCs) to Account for Two-Fifths of South East Asian
Refining Capacity by 2015

NOCs have a significant role in the South East Asia oil refining market. With no
super-major companies planning refining capacity expansions in the region, it
becomes imperative for NOCs to enhance their refining capacities. In 2010,
International Oil Companies (IOCs) had a 42.5% share of the region’s refining
market. By 2015, the share of IOCs will reduce to 28.0%. NOCs will grow to have
a 40% share of the oil refining capacity in the region, and companies other than
IOCs and NOCs will see their collective capacity share increase from 20% in
2010 to 32% in 2015. The significant presence of other companies in the market
shows the competitive nature of the refining market.

Prominence of Cracking Refineries Will Help in Meeting Light Fuel Demand

Global demand for gasoline, diesel and other light fuel has risen considerably over
the last few years and Asia-Pacific has been at the center stage of the increased
consumption of refined petroleum products. Light fuel demand in South East Asia
can be met through increasing the number of cracking processing units in the region.
In 2010, about 82% of the refineries in South East Asia had cracking processing units.
Cracking refineries will help to produce significant commercial products such as
gasoline, diesel, kerosene and jet fuel.

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2011- Market Analysis for South East Asia
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Competitive Scenario and Capacity Forecasts to 2015
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