Name of the Report :
World Offshore Wind Market Forecast 2015-2024

Published Date : 18-6-2013

Table of Contents

1 Summary and Conclusions .....7
Summary ..... 8
Conclusions ..... 9

2 Drivers and Indicators ..... 10
Overview .....11
Political Drivers .....12
Economic Drivers .....13
Low Carbon Power Generation .....14

3 Offshore Wind Project Development ..... 15
Offshore Wind Project Life-Cycle .....16
Offshore Wind Project Costs Structure .....17
Capex Phase 1: Planning & Development .....18
Capex Phase 1: Wind Turbine .....19
Capex Phase 1: Balance of Plant .....20
Capex Phase 1: Installation .....21
Opex Phase .....22
Capex Phase 2: Decommissioning .....23
Offshore Wind Supply Chain .....24

4 Commercial Insights ..... 25
Project Scale .....26
Supply Chain .....27
Capital and Life-time Costs .....30
Risk Profile .....31
Financing Challenges .....32
Contracting Strategies .....34
Industry Challenges .....35
Technology: Wind Turbines .....37
Technology: Support Structures .....39
Key Markets .....40
Emerging Markets: Forecast Capacity 2015-2024 .....41

5 Market Forecasts ..... 42
Methodology .....43
Added Capacity by Country ..... 46
Cumulative Capacity by Country.....47
Capital Expenditure by Country .....48
Annual Capital Expenditure by Type .....49
Operational Expenditure by Country .....50
Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Country .....51
Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Size .....52
Segment Forecasts: Wind Turbines by Manufacturer .....53
Segment Forecasts: Support Structures .....54
Segment Forecasts: Cables .....55
Segment Forecasts: Offshore Substations .....56
Segment Forecasts: Vessels .....57

6 Appendix ..... 58
Data and Text Conventions .....59

List of Tables

Table 1: Renewable Energy Incentive Mechanisms in Key Markets .....12
Table 2: Support structures types comparison .....27
Table 3: Investor types and their attitude to risk .....31
Table 4: Contracting strategies .....34
Table 5: Offshore Wind Projects’ Status Methodology .....43
Table 6: Added capacity by country, 2015-2024 .....46
Table 7: Cumulative capacity by country, 2015-2024 .....47
Table 8: Table #: Capital expenditure by country, 2015-2024 .....48
Table 9: Operational expenditure by country, 2015-2024 .....50
Table 10: Wind turbines installed by country, 2015-2024 .....51
Table 11: Wind turbines installed by size, 2015-2024 .....52
Table 12: Wind turbines installed by country, 2015-2024 .....53
Table 13: Support structures installed by type, 2015-2024 .....54
Table 14: Cable length installed by country, 2015-2024 .....55
Table 15: Cable length installed by type, 2015-2024 .....55
Table 16: Substations installed by country, 2015-2024 .....56
Table 17: Substations installed by type, 2015-2024 .....56
Table 18: Installation vessels required by type, 2015-2024 ..... 57
Table 19: Personnel transfer vessels required, 2015-2024 .....57

List of Figures

Figure 1: Capital Expenditure by Country, 2015-2024 .....8
Figure 2: Drivers for Offshore Wind .....11
Figure 3: EU 2020 Targets – Progress to Date .....12
Figure 4: Global primary energy demand growth .....13
Figure 5: Energy demand forecast by fuel type 1990-2040 .....13
Figure 6: Global Electricity Generation Forecast .....14
Figure 7: Levelised Cost of Energy – Key Technologies .....14
Figure 8: Offshore Wind Project Life-Cycle .....16
Figure 9: Cost Breakdown by Project Phase – Capex, Opex, Decom. .....17
Figure 10: Offshore Wind Supply Chain Overview .....24
Figure 11: Average project capacity, distance from shore and water depth .....26
Figure 12: Offshore Wind Capex Drivers .....30
Figure 13: Offshore Wind Average Project Capex, 2000-2024 .....30
Figure 14: Example of Planning & Development Time Lines, UK. .....33
Figure 15: Size Evolution of Wind Turbines .....37
Figure 16: Aerogenerator X .....38
Figure 17: Two-bladed Offshore Wind Turbine. .....38
Figure 18: Types of Floating Foundations. .....39
Figure 19: Key Markets, the Global Picture .....40
Figure 20: Offshore Wind Installed Capacity, 2015 .....40
Figure 21: Key Region, North-Western Europe .....40
Figure 22: Forecast global capacity installation 2015-2024 ..... 41
Figure 23: Global: Forecast Wind Farm, Capacity and Turbines .....41
Figure 24: All Offshore Wind Projects vs. Forecast Capacity, 2015-2024 .....43
Figure 25: Global Forecast Capacity .....45
Figure 26: Offshore wind forecast capacity installed, 2015-2024 .....45
Figure 27: North-Western Europe Forecast Capacity .....45
Figure 28: Added capacity by country, 2015-2024 .....46
Figure 29: Cumulative capacity by country, 2015-2024 .....47
Figure 30: Capital expenditure by country, 2015-2024 .....48
Figure 31: Expected annual offshore wind Capex, by type 2015-2024.....49
Figure 32: Planning and Development Capex, 2015-2024, €m .....49
Figure 33: Wind Turbine Annual Capex 2015-2024, €m .....49
Figure 34: Balance of Plant Annual Capex 2015-2024, €m .....49
Figure 35: Installation Annual Capex 2015-2024, €m .....49
Figure 36: Operational expenditure by country, 2015-2024 .....50
Figure 37: Operational expenditure by activity .....50
Figure 38: Wind turbines installed by country, 2015-2024 .....51
Figure 39: Wind turbines installed by size, 2015-2024 .....52
Figure 40: Wind turbines installed by manufacturer, 2015-2024 .....53
Figure 41: Support structures installed by type, 2015-2024 .....54
Figure 42: Cable length installed by country, 2015-2024 .....55
Figure 43: Cable length installed by type, 2015-2024 .....55
Figure 44: Substations installed by country, 2015-2024 .....56
Figure 45: Substations installed by type, 2015-2024.....56
Figure 46: Installation vessels required by type, 2015-2024 .....57
Figure 47: Personnel transfer vessels required, 2015-2024 .....57

Summary

Now in its sixth edition, the new World Offshore Wind Market Forecast
provides a ten year view of the sector through to 2024. Cumulative
offshore wind capacity is forecast to reach 57GW, driven by the
continued development of established markets such as the UK,
Germany and China and bolstered by emerging markets including
the US and France.

Over 5.3GW of capacity is expected to be installed in 2015,
with additions anticipated to remain on an upward trend,
peaking at 7.5GW in 2020. Capital Expenditure will
total €240 billion (bn) between 2015 and 2024. However,
these figures only include projects which have passed the
conceptual phase of development, resulting in a large
potential for upside post-2020 totalling €60bn.

Capital costs have reduced recently, predominantly due to the larger
sizes of turbines installed, resulting in less infrastructure
(such as support structures) being required. This upsizing
presents new challenges for installation contractors but should
result in lower operational expenditures once wind farms become
operational.

The UK will install more than 11GW over the next ten years, with most
of this expected to occur by 2022, as Round 3 developments take place.
Germany will also install over 11GW, with a longer term outlook
predicting activity levels will recover in 2018 following a slowdown
in 2016-17. China is expected to install over 8GW of capacity – this
is lower than previously targeted, but still represents a strong
growth market.

Emerging markets include countries such as the US and France, which
are expected to have their first operational wind farms in 2015 and
2017 respectively. The US is expected to install 1.8GW of offshore
capacity over the next decade, and France 3.2GW. Other emerging markets
include countries with historically low levels of offshore wind
activity, such as Sweden, Denmark and Belgium.

Key Themes

The report provides detailed market forecasts through to 2024 and is
essential reading for companies working within the offshore wind sector.
The report focuses on:

Key drivers – a discussion of factors driving offshore wind installation
activity including low carbon targets, rising energy demand and the need
to replace power generation capacity.
Commercial insights – including analysis of cost pressures on capital,
life-time costs, risk factors and typical financing models.
Technology review – analysis of R&D priority areas.
Supply chain – a review of the main players, strengths & weaknesses
of contracting strategies and supply chain development challenges.
Ten-year market forecast – for new capacity, capital expenditure,
operating expenditure, wind turbines, support structures, cabling,
substations and vessels.
Country analysis – detailed operational & capital expenditure forecast,
including by capacity and segment analysis.

This report Approach includes:

Industry consultation – discussion with a wide-range of companies including:
project developers, equipment manufacturers, and installation contractors.
Throughout the report we highlight pertinent quotes, related to specific
aspects of the market.
Unique and proprietary data – detailed by project in our in-house databases.
Updated year-round from published sources and insight gained from industry
consultation.
Detailed methodology – our forecast provides a ‘medium-case’ scenario for
market activity, drawn from our databases, which enables the forecasts to be
established on a project-by-project basis; taking into account factors such
as project size, location, financial backing and progress to date.
Comprehensive analysis – comprehensive examination, analysis and 10-year
forecast of offshore wind expenditure.

Price

Single User PDF : £3,450
Single User Hardcopy : £3,450
Multi-User PDF (5 users) : £4,450
Multi-User Hardcopy (5 copies) : £4,450

Disclaimer

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those of the publishers.

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Search words (for official use only) :
Offshore Wind Project Development
Emerging Markets: Forecast Capacity 2015-2024
Renewable Energy Incentive Mechanisms in Key Markets
Operational expenditure by country, 2015-2024
Support structures installed by type, 2015-2024
Capital Expenditure by Country, 2015-2024
Energy demand forecast by fuel type 1990-2040
Average project capacity, distance from shore and water depth
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